Education Technology

Forecasting

Published on 06/09/2008

Activity Overview

Students use regression to forecast values from a data. They study exponential smoothing. They also use the program FORECAST to automate a multiplicative model.

Before the Activity

Download the FORECAST program on the calculator using one of these two methods:

  • TI Connect™, a TI Connectivity Cable, and the Unit-to-Unit Link Cable
  • TI-Navigator™  "send to class" feature
  • See the attached PDF file for detailed instructions for this activity
  • Print pages 125 - 132 from the attached PDF file for your class
  • During the Activity

    Distribute the pages to the class.

    Follow the Activity procedures:

  • Enter the data that represents the number of customers for a business over a set time period as lists
  • Set up the calculator and graph an xy line plot
  • Study the modeling equation
  • Calculate the forecast for a period
  • Determine the Mean of the Squared Errors and the Mean of the Absolute Values of Deviation for different values of the smoothing constant, α
  • Trace the plot of the original data with the exponentially smoothed values through it
  • Use the EXSMOOTH program to automate the above process
  • Run the FORECAST program to calculate data for a multiplicative model
  • Plot graphs for the original and deseasonalized data
  • Perform a linear regression
  • Determine the trend line and the slope
  • After the Activity

    Review student results:

  • As a class, discuss questions that appeared to be more challenging
  • Re-teach concepts as necessary