Activity Overview
Students use regression to forecast values from a data. They study exponential smoothing. They also use the program FORECAST to automate a multiplicative model.
Before the Activity
Download the FORECAST program on the calculator using one of these two methods:
TI Connect™, a TI Connectivity Cable, and the Unit-to-Unit Link Cable TI-Navigator™ "send to class" feature See the attached PDF file for detailed instructions for this activity Print pages 125 - 132 from the attached PDF file for your class
During the Activity
Distribute the pages to the class.
Follow the Activity procedures:
Enter the data that represents the number of customers for a business over a set time period as lists
Set up the calculator and graph an xy line plot
Study the modeling equation
Calculate the forecast for a period
Determine the Mean of the Squared Errors and the Mean of the Absolute Values of Deviation for different values of the smoothing constant, α
Trace the plot of the original data with the exponentially smoothed values through it
Use the EXSMOOTH program to automate the above process
Run the FORECAST program to calculate data for a multiplicative model
Plot graphs for the original and deseasonalized data
Perform a linear regression
Determine the trend line and the slope
After the Activity
Review student results:
As a class, discuss questions that appeared to be more challenging
Re-teach concepts as necessary