Education Technology

Statistics and Probability / What is Probability

Activity 12 of 24
In this lesson, students use simulations to explore the relationship between the theoretical probability and the empirical probability.

Planning and Resources

Objectives
Students recognize that probability measures the chance that an event will occur. They understand how to represent the theoretical probability for an event and can interpret the long-run relative frequency of an event.

Vocabulary
probability
outcome
sample space
probability model

Standard:

Lesson Snapshot

Understanding

Students will recognize that the probability of an outcome can be estimated from the long-run relative frequencies.

What to look for

Students should notice that the more repetitions of an experiment leads to an relative frequency that is closer to the theoretical probability.

Sample Assessment

Identify each as true or false:

a. The probability of an outcome can be 2/1.
b. The probability of an outcome can be 0.
c. If an outcome is sure to happen, the probability of the outcome is 1.

Responses:
a. False
b. True
c. True

The Big Idea

Probability, which is the value assigned to the likelihood of an event occurring, can take on any numerical value between and including 0 and 1. The higher the probability, the more likely the event is to occur.

What are the students doing?

Students explore how they can use probability to help choose a winning outcome.

What is the teacher doing?

Be sure students explain how they know which outcome is more likely in each of the simulations and how they might describe the probability of each.