#### Understanding

When theoretical probability models are difficult to develop, a simulation model can be used to collect data and estimate probabilities for a real situation that is complex and where the theoretical probabilities are not obvious.

### What to look for

Students should observe that chance will account for some variability, but overall the estimates of the probability of success from simulated distributions should be fairly close, provided the number of repetitions is fairly large.### Sample Assessment

Which of the following could be used to model a 50% chance in a setting up a simulation?

a. a number cube where the faces 1, 2, and 3 represented a success and faces 4, 5, and 6 a failure.

b. tossing two coins and getting two heads.

c. a spinner with 10 regions, where 1 to 6 represented a success and 7 to 10 a failure.

d. a deck of cards where hearts represented a success.

Answer: A