Students examine predictable outcomes of events such as flipping a coin or rolling a dice. They see that these events repeated many times form a pattern of distribution. They explore the probability concepts of most likely and least likely.

Before the Activity

See the attached PDF file for detailed instructions for this activity

Print pages 85 - 100 from the attached PDF file

During the Activity

Distribute the pages to the class.

Follow the activity procedure:
Activity 1: Multiply or Add to get a Larger Number

Roll three dice and list the rolls as - a, b, and c

Predict if the outcome will be a x b > b + c or a x b < b + c or a x b = b + c

Use the calculator to simulate the roll of three dice and record the results in a table

Calculate a x b and b + c

Repeat 20 trials and analyze data collected

Find the percent of each instance and the probability of each outcome

Identify the "most likely" outcome and the "least likely" outcome

Activity 2: Flip Five

Predict the probability of getting exactly three heads, at least 3 heads, and no more than 3 heads when five coins are flipped

Use the calculator to simulate flipping five coins and record at least 20 flips

Record the data in a table and tabulate the number of heads in each series of flips

Compare the prediction with the experimental results

Use a tree diagram along with the list of possible outcomes to find the theoretical probability

Use other elementary school activities to develop an understanding of probability

After the Activity

Review students results and re-teach concepts as necessary.